New figures from the National Accounts show that GDP Mainland Norway declined by 0.2 per cent from October to November, measured in fixed prices and seasonally adjusted.
– After two months of slight growth in the Norwegian economy, there was a small downturn in November, says Head of National Accounts in Statistical Norway, Pål Sletten.
A downturn within electricity as well as in fishing contributed the most to the decline in GDP Mainland Norway in November. Adjusted for the decline in electricity and fishing, the mainland economy would have grown by 0.1 per cent. Health and social work contributed positively.
– The downturn in November was caused by a decline in electry production and fishing. These are industries in which the activity can be volatile, says Pål Sletten.
He emphasizes that when the economy is developing in a flat matter, slight volatility may be the difference between growth and decline from one month to the next. By looking at the rolling three-month growth rate of GDP Mainland Norway one may get a better impression of the underlying development of the economy. From the three-month period of June-August to September-November, Mainland GDP in Norway grew by 0.1 per cent.
There was no change in household consumption in November, measured in fixed prices and seasonally adjusted. The lack of growth was despite increased consumption of goods. Normally consumption of goods increases in November, which can be attributed to big sales on Black Friday and Black Week that’s become more common in Norway. This may cause some of Norway's Christmas shopping to shift from December to November.
- Norwegians have reduced their goods consumption throughout 2023, but like previous years, goods consumption increased in November. This entails that November has steadily become a more important month for Christmas shopping in Norway, says Pål Sletten.
The rolling three-month growth in household consumption was 0.1 per cent.
Industries
Diminishing production within the electricity, gas and steam, and fishing and aquaculture industries contributed the most to the overall decline in the gross product of Mainland Norway in November. The gross product within production of other goods, which includes these industries, fell by 2.1 percent in total. This autumn, power production was unusually high, but in November, wind power production was lower than at the same time last year. As a result, there was a seasonally adjusted decrease in the electricity industry. The decreased production in fishing and aquaculture in November is partially due to much of the mackerel harvest happening in the previous month.
Within the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying industries, the gross product fell by 0.5 percent, driven down by the manufacture of food products and wood and wood product except furniture industries. Services including housing services fell by 0.1 percent and largest negative contribution came from the administrative and support service activities industry.
The gross product for the general government grew by 0.4 percent. Activity increased in both municipal and state health and social services, with municipal health and social services accounting for the majority of the growth.
Measured in constant prices, the gross product within the oil and gas extraction including services grew by 6.4 percent in November. The high growth must be seen in context of the low activity in the first half of the year due to maintenance of the gas infrastructure. At the same time, there was a decline in the price of crude oil and natural gas in November, so that the gross product in current prices fell by 0.3 percent.
Consumption
There was no change in household final consumption expenditure in November measured in fixed prices and seasonally adjusted. Furnishing, household equipment and routine household maintenance as well as recreational and cultural activities contributed the most positively to household consumption. Within recreational and cultural activities, consumption of electronic goods increased the most. Prices of electronic goods as well as furniture decreased from the month before, which relates to sales on Black Friday and Black Week. According to the consumer price index, offers were greater than in the same month last year.
November was also somewhat colder than usual, and households increased their consumption of electricity. This contributed 0.1 per cent to growth in household consumption, measured in fixed prices. At the same time, the price of electricity grew 24.7 per cent which contributed greatly to the consumption of electricity in terms of value. Norwegians’ consumption abroad contributed on its part negatively to household consumption.
Exports and imports
Total exports grew by 0.3 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted and measured in constant prices. The growth was mainly due to increased exports of traditional goods, where machinery and other equipment n.e.c., and metals contributed the most. At the same time, there was a decrease in exports of crude oil and natural gas. Measured in current prices, total exports increased by 1.8 percent.
Total imports fell by 0.7 percent in November measured in seasonally adjusted, constant prices. Reduced import of refined petroleum products and travel-services contributed most to the decrease, while increased import of machinery and other equipment n.e.c., and chemicals helped to mitigate the decline. Measured in current prices, total imports grew by 0.1 percent.
Investments
Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.7 percent in November. However, between the three-month periods June-August to September-November, there was a decrease of 4.0 percent. Investments in dwelling services grew by 1.9 percent in November after a decrease in October. Despite the growth in November, there was an overall decrease of 6.8 percent from June-August to September-November.
For gross fixed capital formation, there is low availability of monthly information. For petroleum investments, investments in manufacturing, mining and power supply, information on planned investments is used as reported by the companies.
Revisions
In connection with new monthly and quarterly figures, retroactive revisions will occur. New information is occasionally incorporated in the calculation of selected national accounts figures. In addition, the seasonal pattern will change as new periods are added.
The great upheavals in the Norwegian economy during the corona pandemic may have led to connections between indicators and account figures differing from normal periods. In the aftermath of the corona pandemic, revisions in the seasonal patterns have occasionally been larger than normal. Preliminary monthly and quarterly figures should therefore be treated as being more uncertain than usual.
In some areas, new information has been incorporated for previous months, and the growth for GDP Mainland Norway has been revised down 0.1 percentage points in October.