Higher investment estimates for 2019
Total investments in oil and gas activity in 2019, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 175.3 billion, which is 6.1 per cent higher than estimated in the previous quarter. The estimate for 2018 is now NOK 155.5 billion.
The operators` estimates for 2018 are 0.5 per cent lower than the estimates given in the previous survey. The estimate for 2018 is still 3.1 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2017, given in the 3rd quarter of 2017, as shown in the statistics on investments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply. In the previous survey, the indicated growth from 2017 to 2018 was only 0.4 per cent. The higher growth now indicated is due to the fact that the fall in the estimate for 2017, given in the 4th quarter of 2017, was more pronounced than the downward adjustment for 2018 in the present survey, as figure 2 below shows.
Figure 1. Estimated investments in extraction and pipeline transport collected in 4th quarter same year
|Extraction and pipeline transport|
The estimate for 2019 is 21.4 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2018 given in the 4th quarter of 2017. The strong growth indicated for 2019 should be interpreted with caution. As figure 2 shows, the estimate for 2018 increased by 10.9 per cent to NOK 160 billion in the 1st quarter of 2018, mainly due to the submission of seven plans for development and operations (PDOs). There is reason to believe that comparable estimates for 2018 and 2019 will converge in the survey in the 1st quarter of 2019, thus implying lower growth for 2019 than indicated in the present survey.
Figure 2. Investments. Extraction and pipeline transport. Estimates given on different points in time
Quarterly investment statistics for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport are included in the survey Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. For more details about total investments, please see the following article.
Strong increase in the estimates for field development in 2019
The investments in field development for 2019 are estimated at NOK 74.2 billion. This is 11.4 per cent higher than the estimate given in the previous survey. The higher estimate is partly due to the submission of a PDO on another development project. This project is now included in this survey.
More PDOs on development projects are expected to be submitted in 2019. These are Luno 2, Cara, Tor II, Garantiana and Brasse. If the schedules for these plans are realised, the accumulated investment costs in 2018 from these projects will increase the investments in field development further, compared to the present estimate, all other things being equal.
The increase in 2019 compared to the estimate for 2018, given in the 4th quarter of 2017, is mainly due to higher investments within the categories field development and exploration, while the estimates indicate a decrease in the investment categories fields on stream and pipeline transportation.
1 The contribution by cost category is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the category with the category's share of investments in extraction and pipeline transport
Figure 3. Contribution by cost category for rate of change in extraction and pipeline transport 2019/2018. Estimates collected in Q4 the previous year
|Contribution by cost category||Percentage change|
|Shutdown and removal||1.0|
|Fields on stream||-1.9|
|Exploration and concept studies||5.0|
|Extraction and pipeline transport||21.4|
Some downward adjusted estimate for 2018
The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport for 2018 are now estimated at NOK 155.5 billion. This is 0.5 lower than the previous estimate, given in the 3rd quarter.
The estimate for 2018 is 3.1 per cent higher than the corresponding estimate for 2017 given in the 4th quarter of 2017. The estimated increase from 2017 to 2018 is mainly due to higher investments within the categories field development and exploration. The estimates for fields on stream, onshore activity, pipeline transportation and shutdown and removal have the opposite path, and show a decrease compared to the corresponding estimates for 2017, given in the 4th quarter of 2017.
1 The contribution by cost category is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the category with the category's share of investments in extraction and pipeline transport.
Figure 4. Contribution by cost category for rate of change in extraction and pipeline transport 2018/2017. Estimates collected in Q4 same year
|Contribution by cost category||Percentage change|
|Shutdown and removal||-0.1|
|Fields on stream||-4.5|
|Exploration and concept studies||1.8|
|Extraction and pipeline transport||3.1|
Some higher investment activity in 3rd quarter
The accrued investment costs increased by 2.4 per cent to NOK 39 billion from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter. The seasonally adjusted growth from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter came to 4.7 per cent.
The accrued investments in the first three quarters in 2018 summed up to NOK 108.5 billion. This corresponds to a quarterly average of NOK 36.2 billion. Realisation of the current estimate for 2018 assumes investments of NOK 46.9 billion in the 4th quarter, which is 20 per cent higher than the accrued investments in the 3rd quarter. Historical figures show that the estimates given in the 4th quarter of the investment year are 1.9 per cent higher than the final investments, on average. Although the investments normally are highest in the 4th quarter there is reason to believe that some of the investments planned for the 4th quarter will be moved to next year.