Covid-induced immigration slump sees slowest population growth since 2001

Published:

By 1st January 2021, Norway’s population stood at 5 391 369. Population growth for 2020 came in at 23 800, making 2020 the year with the slowest population growth since 2001.

Relative to population size, Norway has not experienced such a low growth rate since 1990. These developments are related to the Covid-19 pandemic and the government’s responses to it, with immigration rates considerably reduced through much of the year, as revealed in the newly released yearly and quarterly population statistics.

Significantly fewer immigrations, especially during the spring

There were 38 100 immigrations in 2020, the lowest number since 2004. Each of the three years preceding 2020 saw between 14 100 and 20 100 more immigrations. The number of immigrations has been falling every year since 2012, but the 27 percent decline from 2019 to 2020 represents a slump of historical significance. Until 2020, the largest observed decline since 1950 occurred in 1958, reflecting a reduction of 17 percent.

Figure 1 presents the number of immigrations for each month of 2020 and compares this against the average monthly immigraitons observed for the years 2017-2019. The number of immigrations in January 2020 was slightly lower than the average immigrations in January for the three preceding years. This reflects the broader downward trend in immigration over recent years. However, as we move into the months of spring, we observe a considerable drop in immigrations in 2020. April stands out the most here, with 1 900 fewer immigrations than the average observed for 2017-2019.

Figure 1. Immigrations in 2020 and the average number of immigrations 2017-2019

Month 2020 Average 2017-2019
January 4389 4582
February 3585 4080
March 1703 3268
April 599 2529
May 1594 2875
June 3186 3487
July 3349 3791
August 4466 5440
September 4936 5499
October 3240 4596
November 3190 4063
December 3834 3360

One of the consequences of the low number of immigrations was that the natural increase contributed more to population growth than net migration. This is the first time since 2004 that natural increase has contributed more than net migration to population growth in Norway. As a comparison, net migration in 2012 contributed 29 100 more individuals than the excess of births over deaths.

Figure 2. Natural increase and net migration 1970-2020

Natural increase Net migration
1970 25828 -969
1971 26569 6615
1972 24885 4423
1973 21250 3444
1974 20139 4922
1975 16284 4769
1976 13258 4889
1977 11053 5034
1978 11067 3974
1979 9948 2746
1980 9699 4071
1981 8815 5176
1982 9791 5740
1983 7713 4285
1984 7693 3761
1985 6762 6228
1986 8954 7451
1987 9068 13769
1988 12172 10143
1989 14130 -1453
1990 14918 1710
1991 15885 8045
1992 15378 9942
1993 13081 12808
1994 16021 7436
1995 15102 6366
1996 17067 5817
1997 15206 10700
1998 14240 13823
1999 14128 18999
2000 15232 9688
2001 12715 7955
2002 10969 17174
2003 13980 11285
2004 15751 13211
2005 15524 18439
2006 17292 23723
2007 16505 39652
2008 18785 43346
2009 20358 38637
2010 19943 42346
2011 18827 47032
2012 18263 47343
2013 17713 40073
2014 18690 38155
2015 18331 29802
2016 18164 26076
2017 15859 21349
2018 14280 18103
2019 13811 25327
2020 12368 11327

The effects of this change varies across municipalities. For example, in Oslo, net international migration is lower below 1 000 for the first year since 2000. When including internal migration (moves within Norway), the capital observed a negative net migration of 1 800. Net migration (including both international and internal migrations) and population growth have not been this low in Oslo since 2000, while the fourth quarter in 2020 revealed population decline for the first time since 2001. With that said, the capital did experience a total population growth of 3 500 in 2020 due to the natural increase.

Further population ageing in 2020

The Norwegian population aged further in 2020, something that is likely to continue for the years to come. By 1st January 2021, there were 11 000 fewer residents below the age of 20 than there had been just a year earlier. In the same period, the number of persons aged 67 years or more rose by 22 000. Thus, the increase for residents aged 67 years and older was almost the same as the total increase for the population (23 800).

Figure 3. Population 1st January by age group

Category 0-5 years 6-12 years 13-15 years 16-19 years 20-44 years 45-66 years 67-79 years 80 years and over
1971 394122.00 432162.00 185606.00 240759.00 1196452.00 1009136.00 343345.00 86723.00
1972 394417.00 435849.00 185454.00 244168.00 1208271.00 1011479.00 349085.00 89050.00
1973 392672.00 441020.00 184638.00 246327.00 1225820.00 1011385.00 355071.00 91301.00
1974 388026.00 446481.00 183844.00 246614.00 1243415.00 1009856.00 360336.00 94418.00
1975 380947.00 452489.00 183572.00 247393.00 1262723.00 1006433.00 366298.00 97670.00
1976 369950.00 459233.00 183081.00 247469.00 1281881.00 1002233.00 371898.00 101356.00
1977 359256.00 461730.00 185128.00 245740.00 1303965.00 995469.00 378751.00 105163.00
1978 345392.00 462809.00 188630.00 245799.00 1325626.00 988629.00 384936.00 109387.00
1979 333176.00 461876.00 192947.00 245660.00 1349903.00 977889.00 390853.00 113830.00
1980 323374.00 457239.00 196763.00 246506.00 1373876.00 966289.00 397467.00 117386.00
1981 314907.00 451354.00 198206.00 250814.00 1397533.00 954490.00 403367.00 121669.00
1982 309827.00 441056.00 200145.00 255298.00 1422174.00 944069.00 409062.00 125432.00
1983 307932.00 427356.00 201619.00 260450.00 1445901.00 935375.00 413613.00 130265.00
1984 306993.00 413984.00 200407.00 264181.00 1468127.00 928130.00 417938.00 134593.00
1985 305744.00 400471.00 198825.00 266758.00 1491172.00 920285.00 424012.00 138578.00
1986 305669.00 388166.00 195647.00 269359.00 1515749.00 913924.00 428985.00 141688.00
1987 307112.00 378369.00 192616.00 268183.00 1543668.00 908466.00 431435.00 145672.00
1988 310916.00 370324.00 187238.00 268406.00 1570607.00 901114.00 440550.00 149133.00
1989 317646.00 366078.00 179535.00 265602.00 1592136.00 901645.00 445774.00 152270.00
1990 326451.00 363163.00 171895.00 258460.00 1598706.00 908868.00 449294.00 156279.00
1991 336648.00 362945.00 163293.00 254229.00 1602278.00 918718.00 452294.00 159425.00
1992 346423.00 362866.00 159036.00 246019.00 1604512.00 938002.00 453537.00 163239.00
1993 354492.00 364811.00 157448.00 235745.00 1609796.00 957102.00 452457.00 167316.00
1994 361332.00 368894.00 158335.00 226276.00 1614190.00 975037.00 451046.00 169705.00
1995 363999.00 375596.00 158007.00 218532.00 1617037.00 993453.00 448306.00 173480.00
1996 365145.00 383554.00 157892.00 214193.00 1616334.00 1011308.00 445030.00 176503.00
1997 364967.00 394331.00 156842.00 212467.00 1614206.00 1028451.00 441128.00 180322.00
1998 364007.00 405198.00 156599.00 212928.00 1610129.00 1047832.00 436493.00 184413.00
1999 362566.00 414815.00 156866.00 213381.00 1608964.00 1069027.00 431289.00 188421.00
2000 363539.00 423446.00 160173.00 212949.00 1609632.00 1091251.00 427485.00 190022.00
2001 362458.00 429370.00 163889.00 212674.00 1605850.00 1115495.00 416799.00 196901.00
2002 358563.00 432405.00 170128.00 213407.00 1599041.00 1140915.00 408148.00 201459.00
2003 353730.00 435762.00 177202.00 215714.00 1598643.00 1166058.00 400080.00 205063.00
2004 350556.00 435192.00 184525.00 220083.00 1593297.00 1190474.00 394144.00 209186.00
2005 349626.00 432856.00 188544.00 227335.00 1589361.00 1214707.00 390779.00 213155.00
2006 347815.00 432455.00 190203.00 235513.00 1590623.00 1237400.00 390334.00 215876.00
2007 348049.00 432602.00 189163.00 244387.00 1596946.00 1260240.00 391585.00 218162.00
2008 351164.00 430842.00 188723.00 252217.00 1615854.00 1284643.00 395134.00 218594.00
2009 357451.00 428010.00 189664.00 256305.00 1638836.00 1312372.00 396983.00 219631.00
2010 363597.00 425646.00 192099.00 258415.00 1656097.00 1337202.00 405121.00 220022.00
2011 368576.00 424638.00 192810.00 259309.00 1678123.00 1359812.00 415884.00 221153.00
2012 372428.00 424921.00 191488.00 259718.00 1703611.00 1379093.00 433018.00 221583.00
2013 375014.00 426509.00 190264.00 261666.00 1728068.00 1396542.00 451627.00 221585.00
2014 375744.00 428077.00 190040.00 262789.00 1744961.00 1408723.00 477962.00 220760.00
2015 373954.00 433578.00 188886.00 262481.00 1759513.00 1424649.00 502304.00 220437.00
2016 370121.00 441838.00 186284.00 262536.00 1769024.00 1439486.00 524671.00 220025.00
2017 366772.00 447901.00 185352.00 262705.00 1774275.00 1455310.00 545022.00 220980.00
2018 362601.00 451079.00 186608.00 260605.00 1776723.00 1471644.00 563607.00 222752.00
2019 356139.00 452818.00 188647.00 257853.00 1779999.00 1487062.00 579695.00 225999.00
2020 351159.00 451246.00 191130.00 255214.00 1789814.00 1501597.00 596710.00 230710.00
2021 343764 448573 192510 252943 1792220 1511702 613250 236407

The average age rose by 0,27 years, and now stands at 40,78.

Fewer births – but not due to Covid-19

The number of births continued to fall in 2020, with 1 500 fewer births than in the previous year. The scale of the decline is quite similar to that observed in previous years, with 2020 representing the fifth year since 2011 wherein the year-to-year decline was larger than 1 200. In any case, the number of births has declined further, taking the birth rate to 9,8 births per 1 000 residents. The corresponding number in 2010 was 12,6.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Births, and births per 1 000 residents

As most children in 2020 will have been conceived well before the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in Norway, with the first lockdown starting March the 12th, the decline in births in 2020 is unlikely to have been a result of the pandemic. Any obvious effects of the pandemic on birth statistics will thus not be observable until the release of 2021 statistics.

Little effect on the death count

There were 73 fewer deaths in 2020 than the year before, so the total death count does not seem to have been significantly influenced by the pandemic, though underlying patterns might have changed somewhat. Detailed yearly death figures for 2020 will be available from 11th March.