Discussion Papers no. 676

Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls

Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.

Om publikasjonen

Tittel

Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls

Ansvarlige

Torfinn Harding, Frederick van der Ploeg

Serie og -nummer

Discussion Papers no. 676

Utgiver

Statistics Norway

Emne

Discussion Papers

ISSN

1892-753X

Antall sider

37

Målform

Engelsk

Om Discussion Papers

Discussion papers comprise research papers intended for international journals and books. A preprint of a Discussion Paper may be longer and more elaborate than a standard journal article as it may include intermediate calculations, background material etc.

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