No change in retail sales

Published:

The seasonally-adjusted volume of retail sales showed no change from February to March 2021. This follows a decrease of 0.3 per cent from January to February.

Written by: Marie Karoline Skjeldås

New figures from the Index of wholesale and retail trade showed no change in the seasonal adjusted volume of the retail sector in March. The pandemic and regulations imposed to limit infections have contributed to Norwegians changing their consumption pattern in the direction of spending less on services, and more on retail goods. These changes in the shopping pattern of the Norwegian people have made the seasonally adjusted figures more volatile.

1 March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for the latest months are not included in the figure.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Seasonally adjusted Trend
March 2015 100.9 100.7
April 2015 103.5 100.7
May 2015 98.7 100.5
June 2015 100.1 100.4
July 2015 100.4 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.9 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.1 100.3
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.4
Nov. 2015 100.3 100.4
Dec. 2015 100.2 100.3
Jan. 2016 100.8 100.1
Feb. 2016 99.7 99.8
March 2016 99.0 99.6
April 2016 98.9 99.5
May 2016 99.9 99.4
June 2016 99.9 99.4
July 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.7
Sep. 2016 99.8 99.9
Oct. 2016 100.9 100.1
Nov. 2016 100.2 100.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 100.5
Jan. 2017 100.2 100.8
Feb. 2017 101.3 101.0
March 2017 101.4 101.3
April 2017 101.0 101.5
May 2017 102.6 101.6
June 2017 102.5 101.7
July 2017 102.3 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.9 101.7
Sep. 2017 101.2 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.6 101.9
Nov. 2017 102.9 102.1
Dec. 2017 102.7 102.3
Jan. 2018 102.0 102.5
Feb. 2018 102.5 102.6
March 2018 102.4 102.7
April 2018 102.9 102.7
May 2018 105.2 102.7
June 2018 102.1 102.7
July 2018 102.4 102.6
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.6
Sep. 2018 102.3 102.5
Oct. 2018 102.3 102.5
Nov. 2018 102.8 102.5
Dec. 2018 101.9 102.5
Jan. 2019 103.3 102.5
Feb. 2019 101.5 102.5
March 2019 102.5 102.6
April 2019 104.1 102.7
May 2019 102.8 102.9
June 2019 102.4 103.0
July 2019 103.2 103.1
Aug. 2019 103.2 103.1
Sep. 2019 103.2 103.0
Oct. 2019 102.4 102.8
Nov. 2019 103.4 102.8
Dec. 2019 101.4 102.8
Jan. 2020 101.7 102.9
Feb. 2020 103.5 103.1
March 2020 102.5
April 2020 107.3
May 2020 110.4
June 2020 116.6
July 2020 117.4
Aug. 2020 111.7
Sep. 2020 112.1
Oct. 2020 113.5
Nov. 2020 116.8
Dec. 2020 110.1
Jan. 2021 110.0
Feb. 2021 109.7
March 2021 109.7

Decline for the clothing stores

The seasonally adjusted volume of the retail sector showed no change from February to March, but there were differences between the different sectors. Clothing stores had a decline in the seasonally adjusted volume and was the largest contribution to decline in the volume of retail sales. On the other hand grocery stores experienced an increase in the seasonally adjusted volume of 2.9 per cent, contributing to an increase in the volume of retail sales and contributing to making the volume of retail sales unchanged.

Extension of coverage and new statistics name

The scope of the statistics is broadened from covering only NACE division 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles to also covering NACE division 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and NACE division 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Thus, the new statistics covers the whole section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. In this first release value indices are published for 45 and 46, but in the coming months volume indices and seasonally adjusted figures will also be published for these divisions.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the shopping pattern since March compared to what we usually observe. The seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures from the start of and during the crisis (from March), are not included in the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine, this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This means that the usual trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend and seasonal adjusted figures will follow each other. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure which is calculated in the seasonal adjusted routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is therefore not included. The trend figures from March 2020 and the following moths will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statistics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Seasonally-adjusted figures for March and April are more uncertain

Due to Easter, it is difficult to compare the sales index for March and April with the corresponding months in 2020. The seasonally-adjusted index takes the Easter holidays in March or April into account, but it is difficult to correct for Easter shopping. Therefore, the seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April are more uncertain than the seasonally-adjusted indices for the other months.

Differences between the index of wholesale and retail trade and the index of household consumption of goods

The sector 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles from the Index of wholesale and retail trade is one of the central sources in the calculation of the index of household consumption of goods (VKI). There are still usually differences in the development of these two indices, and there are several reasons for this. VKI covers the households’ consumption of electricity and heating fuel, and the purchases of vehicles. This is not included in what is covered in the sector 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles in the index of wholesale and retail trade. The two indices are also weighted differently. The difference in weighting has a particular big effect when there are large differences between the different industries of the retail sector. The reason behind the difference in weighting between the index of wholesale and retail trade and VKI is that VKI is a measure of the household consumption of goods, while what is covered in the retail sector in the index of wholesale and retail trade describes the development in the retail trade sector.

Read also on ssb.no

Statistics