Decline in retail sales

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The seasonally-adjusted volume index of retail sales decreased by 1.8 percent from November to December 2018. This follows an increase of 1.1 percent from October to November 2018.

Written by: Marie Skjeldås / Anders Falla Aas

The long-term trend in the retail sales has increased by 3.4 percent from its turning point in May 2016, to the peak around the summer of 2018. The last six months however, the trend has shown downward development.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles seasonally adjusted Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles trend
Jan. 2012 96.5 96.2
Feb. 2012 96.4 96.5
Mar. 2012 97.0 96.7
Apr. 2012 96.5 96.9
May. 2012 98.3 97.1
June 2012 96.7 97.2
July 2012 97.2 97.2
Aug. 2012 97.1 97.2
Sep. 2012 97.7 97.3
Oct. 2012 97.0 97.4
Nov. 2012 97.3 97.6
Dec. 2012 97.6 97.9
Jan. 2013 99.5 98.2
Feb. 2013 98.9 98.4
Mar. 2013 98.6 98.5
Apr. 2013 97.4 98.6
May. 2013 100.0 98.6
June 2013 99.1 98.6
July 2013 98.4 98.7
Aug. 2013 98.6 98.7
Sep. 2013 99.2 98.6
Oct. 2013 98.2 98.6
Nov. 2013 98.4 98.7
Dec. 2013 98.7 98.8
Jan. 2014 98.9 99.1
Feb. 2014 99.5 99.4
Mar. 2014 100.1 99.7
Apr. 2014 100.9 100.0
May. 2014 99.8 100.2
June 2014 100.8 100.2
July 2014 99.0 100.2
Aug. 2014 99.8 100.2
Sep. 2014 100.3 100.2
Oct. 2014 100.1 100.2
Nov. 2014 99.9 100.2
Dec. 2014 100.8 100.4
Jan. 2015 100.0 100.5
Feb. 2015 100.7 100.6
Mar. 2015 100.8 100.7
Apr. 2015 103.6 100.6
May. 2015 98.7 100.5
June 2015 100.2 100.4
July 2015 100.5 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.9 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.0 100.4
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.5
Nov. 2015 100.4 100.5
Dec. 2015 100.0 100.4
Jan. 2016 100.7 100.2
Feb. 2016 99.8 99.9
Mar. 2016 99.0 99.7
Apr. 2016 99.0 99.5
May. 2016 99.9 99.4
June 2016 99.9 99.4
July 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.6
Sep. 2016 99.7 99.8
Oct. 2016 101.0 100.0
Nov. 2016 100.3 100.2
Dec. 2016 98.2 100.4
Jan. 2017 100.1 100.7
Feb. 2017 101.0 101.0
Mar. 2017 101.3 101.3
Apr. 2017 101.4 101.5
May. 2017 102.5 101.6
June 2017 102.4 101.7
July 2017 102.5 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.8 101.7
Sep. 2017 101.2 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.4 101.9
Nov. 2017 103.2 102.0
Dec. 2017 102.3 102.1
Jan. 2018 101.9 102.3
Feb. 2018 102.1 102.4
Mar. 2018 102.5 102.5
Apr. 2018 103.1 102.6
May. 2018 105.1 102.7
June 2018 102.1 102.8
July 2018 102.6 102.8
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.7
Sep. 2018 102.3 102.6
Oct. 2018 102.2 102.5
Nov. 2018 103.3 102.4
Dec. 2018 101.4 102.3

Working-day adjusted figures show that retail sales decreased by 0.2 percent in the period October 2018 – December 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. 

Changing pre-Christmas shopping pattern

The emergence of Black Friday, and increased online shopping, has changed the pre-Christmas shopping pattern over the last few years. This is a relatively new phenomenon, which means that seasonal adjustment may not yet correct for this new shopping pattern optimally. A consequence of this is that the seasonally adjusted indices of the months affected by this change may be more uncertain.

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