Downturn in export prices in February

Published:

The producer price index (PPI) fell by 3.3 per cent from January to February. Reduced export prices on oil and gas had the largest impact, but reduced electricity prices were another contributing factor.

Due to Easter holidays, the producer price index for March will be published at April 8th.

In total, PPI fell by 3.3 per cent from January to February 2020. The downturn was largest at the export market, with a price drop of 5.7 per cent, while the prices on the domestic market fell by 0.9 per cent. PPI without energy goods rose by 1.1 per cent.

Reduced export prices in February

The reduced export prices mainly came as a result of falling prices on crude oil and natural gas, which combined fell by around 11 per cent. The price on Brent Blend stood at about 50 USD per barrel at the end of February, and measured in NOK, fell by around 9 per cent from January. This downturn came in a time where the market fears the Corona virus, and the global demand of oil has fallen for the first time in over ten years. It is estimated that the virus alone has reduced February’s oil comsumption in China by about 25 per cent. The Norwegian krone further weakened against US dollars in Februar, and may have contributed to a dampening of the price fall in export goods from Norway.

Unusual winter sends gas prices down

The price on natural gas fell considerably in February. The prices are affected by circumstances at the global market. In Asia, gas prices fell to record breaking lows due to fears of a Corona-induced drop in demand. Another contributor has been the relatively warm winter, according to Bloomberg.

Figure 1. Price index. 2015=100

PPI total Crude oil Natural gas
Jan. 2014 114.2 155.2 122.4
Feb. 2014 113.4 155.4 118.8
Mar. 2014 110.1 149.4 108.9
Apr. 2014 109.6 149.4 106.5
May 2014 108.6 151.5 98.7
June 2014 109.1 156.9 95.3
July 2014 108.5 153.7 88.6
Aug. 2014 107.7 147.0 88.2
Sep. 2014 107.7 144.3 91.7
Oct. 2014 107.5 134.1 103.4
Nov.2014 104.5 125.1 95.2
Dec. 2014 104.8 104.7 118.7
Jan. 2015 100.0 87.2 120.7
Feb. 2015 102.1 103.9 105.0
Mar. 2015 103.5 105.0 111.9
Apr. 2015 103.5 110.6 101.4
May 2015 103.4 114.9 96.1
June 2015 103.7 117.2 98.1
July 2015 101.4 108.9 97.8
Aug. 2015 97.0 91.2 98.9
Sep. 2015 96.8 93.8 94.6
Oct. 2015 97.4 94.9 91.3
Nov. 2015 97.8 93.2 92.3
Dec. 2015 93.4 78.9 92.1
Jan. 2016 89.2 64.7 80.8
Feb. 2016 86.9 67.9 71.9
Mar. 2016 88.0 78.5 63.3
Apr. 2016 88.7 82.6 60.2
May 2016 91.1 91.3 59.6
June 2016 93.7 97.3 62.6
July 2016 94.1 91.8 69.9
Aug. 2016 92.4 89.9 66.5
Sep. 2016 91.0 91.3 58.7
Oct. 2016 93.0 97.6 58.3
Nov. 2016 95.3 91.7 72.9
Dec. 2016 100.2 108.4 84.5
Jan. 2017 100.5 108.9 80.6
Feb. 2017 103.2 107.7 91.8
Mar. 2017 102.2 104.7 92.5
Apr. 2017 100.0 107.1 74.6
May 2017 99.2 102.1 75.4
June 2017 96.7 92.3 75.9
July 2017 95.7 93.3 68.8
Aug. 2017 96.1 95.0 68.2
Sep. 2017 98.9 101.5 72.9
Oct. 2017 101.3 106.4 84.5
Nov. 2017 104.6 118.6 84.8
Dec. 2017 107.6 122.9 95.5
Jan. 2018 110.9 127.3 105.5
Feb. 2018 108.1 118.2 92.5
Mar. 2018 108.7 121.1 93.4
Apr. 2018 112.3 131.2 107.8
May 2018 113.6 145.9 97.1
June 2018 116.1 143.2 102.8
July 2018 117.3 142.6 106.1
Aug. 2018 118.0 143.8 109.5
Sep. 2018 119.7 152.6 111.5
Oct. 2018 124.1 155.5 134.6
Nov. 2018 120.2 129.9 133.3
Dec. 2018 115.9 118.3 120.6
Jan. 2019 116.3 120.9 120.7
Feb. 2019 116.8 131.4 110.8
Mar. 2019 114.4 136.4 90.0
Apr. 2019 115.2 144.8 82.1
May 2019 114.1 146.1 73.4
June 2019 108.5 126.9 66.0
July 2019 107.2 130.9 54.2
Aug. 2019 106.9 124.7 59.8
Sep. 2019 106.9 131.0 52.9
Oct. 2019 107.0 128.4 49.5
Nov. 2019 108.8 134.5 49.9
Dec. 2019 113.3 137.4 70.8
Jan. 2020 111.8 134.0 69.0
Feb. 2020 108.1 121.5 59.7

Lowest electricity prices in twenty years

The mild and somewhat rainy weather, lead to low consumption of electricity in February. The consequence was a further reduction in electricity prices, with a reduction of 13 per cent from January. The average price was, according to NVE, the lowest observed in 20 years. The prices on electricity distribution had no change from January to February, and thus had a dampening effect on the downturn for electricity, gas and steam.

Increased industrial prices

The prices on industrial products rose by 1.4 per cent from January to February. Contrasting the other energy goods, prices on refined petroleum products had an increase of 1.9 per cent. Another example of an industry with price increses was the food industry. Here, the prices increased by 1.8 per cent, chiefly due to seafood and dairy products.