Sound growth in Mainland GDP in October

The last months negative development in agriculture and fishing is still slowing the three-month growth in mainland GDP. Even though these industries experienced solid growth in October and were among the largest contributors to the strong monthly development from September to October, it was not enough to lift the three-month growth. Agriculture and fishing pulled down the three-month growth by about 0.3 percentage points.

For construction, which has contributed positively to GDP growth over a long period, figures over the last three months show a flattening. On the other side, electric power generation contributed to 0.2 percentage points of the growth in August—October. Service industries exhibit stable growth, estimated to 0.4 per cent for August to October compared with May to July, and the same as in the 3rd quarter. Manufacturing and mining grew 0.5 percent in the same period.

Continued weak household consumption

Household consumption was virtually unchanged in August-October compared with May-July. The weak consumption growth is mainly due to a 0.4 per cent decline in consumption of goods. This is mainly due to weak growth in consumption of food and beverages over a few months and the purchase and operation of cars, especially in September. Electricity consumption rose and helped dampen the weak development in consumption of goods. Service consumption has grown relatively stable, and the three-month growth is estimated to 0.4 per cent.

Final consumption expenditure of general government shows steady growth and increased 0.4 per cent in August-October.

Investments in dwellings – decline continues to level out

Investments grew 1.4 per cent in August-October compared with May-July. From September to October, investments declined 3.3 per cent. This must be seen in connection with registered investments in military aircrafts in September.

Investments in dwellings have declined quite a bit through 2018 but have recently leveled out. Investments in dwellings in August-October were on the same level as in May–July. For September to October, investments in dwellings grew 1.5 per cent.

Good monthly information for other investments is lacking. This means that information on planned investments, as reported by firms in the industry, is used for petroleum, manufacturing, mining and power supply investments.

Imports and exports

Exports of traditional goods grew 3.5 per cent in October, and 1.3 per cent over the three-month period to October. Especially refined and chemical products contributed to the growth. Imports of traditional goods grew 2.2 per cent in October, while the three-month period August-October experienced a 0.2 per cent decline.

Revisions of previously published figures

With new monthly figures, comes revisions. The statistics used will not normally be subject to a revision, but seasonally adjusted series may, however, be changed. This is a consequence of new information being incorporated into the seasonal adjustment. As additional months are included in the data, the effect of new observations will become ever smaller. 

3rd quarter growth in mainland GDP is 0.3 per cent, as published November 13th. 1st quarter figures also remain unchanged. 2nd quarter growth has been revised down from 0.7 to 0.6 per cent. This is due to rounding, as in the quarterly publication.