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2019-10-04T13:43:00.000Z
en

Seminar

Research seminar: Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis

Speaker
Chuck Manski, Northwestern University
Date
5 December 2019
When
11:30 - 12:45
Where
Auditoriet, SSB, Akersveien 26

Content

Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University:  http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/

Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis

Abstract: 

The term “policy analysis” describes scientific evaluations of the impacts of past public policies and predictions of the outcomes of potential future policies. A prevalent practice has been to report policy analysis with incredible certitude. That is, exact predictions of policy outcomes are routine, while expressions of uncertainty are rare. However, predictions and estimates often are fragile, resting on unsupported assumptions and limited data. Therefore, the expressed certitude is not credible. This paper summarizes my work documenting incredible certitude and calling for transparent communication of uncertainty. I present a typology of practices that contribute to incredible certitude, give illustrative examples, and offer suggestions on how to communicate uncertainty.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Practical information

 

 

Contact

  • Position
    Head of research
    E-mail
    Ola.Vestad@ssb.no
    Phone
    +47 40902502