Discussion Papers no. 953

Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation

Reliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data.

We propose the use of empirical Bayes methods based on a model with three hierarchical geographic levels to predict small area fertility schedules. The proposed model has a flexible specification with respect to age, which allows for detailed age heterogeneity in local fertility patterns. The model limits sampling variability in small areas, captures regional variations effectively, is robust to certain types of model misspecification, and outperforms alternative models in terms of prediction accuracy. The beneficial properties of the model are demonstrated through simulations and estimations on full-count Norwegian population data.

About the publication

Title

Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules: reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation

Author

Stefan Leknes and Sturla A. Løkken

Series and number

Discussion Papers no. 953

Publisher

Statistisk sentralbyrå

Topic

Discussion Papers

ISSN

1892-753X

Number of pages

35

About Discussion Papers

Discussion papers comprise research papers intended for international journals and books. A preprint of a Discussion Paper may be longer and more elaborate than a standard journal article as it may include intermediate calculations, background material etc.

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