Population projections

The population of Norway is projected at a national and regional level. Immigrant numbers in Norway are also projected.

Project details

Project manager
Marianne Tønnessen
Project status
Research field

About the Project

Statistics Norway produces the population projections for Norway. This is one of Statistics Norway’s ongoing tasks, and is financed by central government.

The population projections are a key tool in both national and local planning. They are also used in other types of economic and demographic projections.

The results of the latest population projection and archives of earlier projections are available here.

Population trends are dictated by a few main components: fertility, mortality, domestic and cross-border migration. The projections of future population numbers include assumptions about how each of the said components will develop in the future. The assumptions about future fertility, mortality, domestic and cross-border migration are incorporated into a cohort-component model, which calculates future populations for each year.

Although the projections are an ongoing project in which the main features of the calculation basis remain more or less the same from year to year, calculation methods are constantly under development. This work includes empirical analyses of the components (fertility, mortality, domestic and cross-border migration), development of the models and evaluations of the accuracy of earlier projections.