The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period September-November 2021 amounted to 118,8 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 119. Figures for the last months indicate that the production activity has leveled out (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures¹. 2005=100

¹ March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Monthly change: unchanged production from October to November

According to , manufacturing output was unchanged from October to November 2021. Basic metals contributed the most in a positive direction with a strong growth of 9.9 per cent. This growth was mainly due to a recovery from low production levels in October when several businesses within the industry reported of instances of downtime and maintenance shutdowns. There was also growth within wood and wood products and in the industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral products.

On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals saw a decline of 1.8 per cent. In addition, there was also a decline in manufacturing output in fabricated metal products and in repair and installation of machinery.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Three-month change: decline in food products, growth in rubber and plastic

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output had a small decline of 0.2 per cent in the period September to November 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. Food products had the largest contribution in a negative direction with a decrease of 2.6 per cent. This was particularly due to a fall in production within processing and preserving of fish. This decline is related to unusually high slaughter volumes of mackerel for August which subsequently levelled out in later months.

On the other hand, the industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral products saw a marked growth of 4.2 per cent in this three-month period. In addition, there was also an increase in manufacturing output in repair and installation of machinery compared to the last period.

Monthly change: output growth in the Euro area in October 2021

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the had an output growth of 1.2 per cent from September to October 2021. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing production had a fall of 0.9 per cent.

Sweden saw a production growth of 1.8 per cent, while Denmark had a clear output increase of 2.6 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Three-month change: marginal growth in total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply had an output growth of 0.4 per cent in the period September to November 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. Extraction of crude petroleum had a growth of 0.5 per cent, while extraction of natural gas saw a marked increase of 3.8 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output increase of 1.8 per cent in the period September to November 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying had a growth of 9.2 per cent, while Norwegian electricity supply saw a production drop of 3.8 per cent.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.