The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 168.3 (2005=100) in the period March-May 2021 compared to 161.0 in the previous three-month period, according to Seasonally-adjusted figures: In order to facilitate the interpretation of the short-term development, statistics on turnover publish three-month moving averages of the seasonally-adjusted figures. We normally compare the latest non-overlapping three-month periods. Seasonally-adjusted monthly changes must be interpreted with caution..
Three-month change: turnover continue to increase
Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 4.5 per cent in the period March-May 2021, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. The export marked had the highest increase.
The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to the increase from March to May 2021 in manufacturing turnover. Food products also contributed to this increase with an increase of 3.4 per cent.
Fabricated metal products and the industry grouping building of ships and oil platforms contributed the most to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover.
Monthly change: increased turnover in May 2021
Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing increased by 1.1 per cent from April to May 2021 according to seasonally-adjusted figures. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to the positive development in manufacturing turnover with its increase of 4.8 per cent in the period.
Basic metals also contributed to the increase in manufacturing in May. Food products also contributed to this development.
Fabricated metal products and computer and electrical equipment contributed the most to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover.
Monthly change: decrease in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in April 2021
Manufacturing turnover in the euro area decreased by 0.5 percent from March to April 2021, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover decreased by 0.7 percent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark and Sweden was down by 3.1 and 0.9 per cent respectively, according to Eurostat.
Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and the following months as outliers. This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret. The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.
It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.