Optimism in manufacturing

Published:

Norwegian industrial managers report a production increase in the fourth quarter of 2017, with expectations of increased production and new orders in the first quarter of 2018. The general expectations for the first quarter of 2018 are also positive among most of the industry leaders.

The business tendency survey for the fourth quarter of 2017 shows an increase in total production compared with the third quarter of 2017. For manufacturers of capital goods there was an improvement in output after a fall since the third quarter of 2014. There is an improvement among suppliers to the oil and gas industry such as in machinery and equipment, and repair, installation of machinery, while the construction of ships and oil platforms still reports lower production.

Producers of intermediate goods reported a moderate growth in production in the fourth quarter of 2017, with an improvement among industries such as fabricated metal products and wood and wood products, while paper and paper products had a fall in production. The production of consumer goods was virtually unchanged after a fall in the three previous quarters.

The overall employment shows a moderate increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 after being negative since the fourth quarter of 2013. There was an increase for producers of intermediate goods but a decrease for producers of capital goods. For the producers of consumer goods, the employment was almost unchanged.

Figure 1. Production and employment for manufacturing. Changes from previous quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted

Turning point value Total volume of production Average employment
Q1-2008 50 56.44 54.20
Q2-2008 50 53.67 51.35
Q3-2008 50 47.83 46.42
Q4-2008 50 40.96 40.33
Q1-2009 50 37.62 36.18
Q2-2009 50 39.78 36.65
Q3-2009 50 44.58 39.40
Q4-2009 50 47.89 42.41
Q1-2010 50 50.03 44.54
Q2-2010 50 51.34 45.43
Q3-2010 50 52.02 46.99
Q4-2010 50 53.23 50.45
Q1-2011 50 55.36 53.88
Q2-2011 50 55.92 54.71
Q3-2011 50 55.06 54.23
Q4-2011 50 54.17 53.63
Q1-2012 50 53.16 53.64
Q2-2012 50 52.44 54.07
Q3-2012 50 52.02 54.27
Q4-2012 50 50.99 53.16
Q1-2013 50 49.77 52.28
Q2-2013 50 50.88 52.37
Q3-2013 50 52.63 51.59
Q4-2013 50 53.91 50.58
Q1-2014 50 54.51 49.97
Q2-2014 50 53.09 49.73
Q3-2014 50 51.23 49.90
Q4-2014 50 50.30 48.98
Q1-2015 50 48.22 45.10
Q2-2015 50 46.39 41.02
Q3-2015 50 46.67 39.09
Q4-2015 50 47.46 39.41
Q1-2016 50 48.26 41.07
Q2-2016 50 48.41 42.18
Q3-2016 50 46.97 42.07
Q4-2016 50 46.61 42.76
Q1-2017 50 47.98 44.89
Q2-2017 50 49.43 47.42
Q3-2017 50 50.62 49.76
Q4-2017 50 50.94 50.57

Increase in new orders from the domestic market

New orders from the domestic market show an increase in the fourth quarter of 2017, while new orders from export markets show a slight increase. The total stock of orders increased during the same period. Looking at the different industrial groupings, the producer of intermediate goods shows an increase in new orders from the domestic market and in the total stock of orders, while new orders from the export market were almost unchanged. Producers of capital goods show an increase in new orders from the domestic market, and a slight increase in new orders from the export market, and an increase in the total stock of orders. For producers of consumer goods there was an increase in new orders from the export market, while new orders from the domestic market and the stock of orders were virtually unchanged. 

Figure 2. New orders received for manufacturing. Changes from previous quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted

Turning point value New orders received from home markets New orders received from export markets
Q1-2008 50 52.80 50.10
Q2-2008 50 49.38 46.48
Q3-2008 50 42.58 42.72
Q4-2008 50 34.48 28.81
Q1-2009 50 32.46 28.00
Q2-2009 50 37.37 38.02
Q3-2009 50 42.34 41.09
Q4-2009 50 44.47 43.87
Q1-2010 50 46.92 47.57
Q2-2010 50 50.79 51.76
Q3-2010 50 53.52 53.42
Q4-2010 50 55.35 54.19
Q1-2011 50 57.31 53.25
Q2-2011 50 56.94 50.35
Q3-2011 50 54.88 48.03
Q4-2011 50 54.93 47.22
Q1-2012 50 55.01 48.03
Q2-2012 50 52.51 48.87
Q3-2012 50 49.87 46.57
Q4-2012 50 49.20 44.64
Q1-2013 50 48.30 45.05
Q2-2013 50 48.90 47.98
Q3-2013 50 50.60 52.36
Q4-2013 50 50.70 54.87
Q1-2014 50 50.11 54.84
Q2-2014 50 49.96 53.13
Q3-2014 50 48.20 49.59
Q4-2014 50 46.17 46.02
Q1-2015 50 44.33 43.53
Q2-2015 50 43.11 42.32
Q3-2015 50 43.09 43.32
Q4-2015 50 44.25 43.98
Q1-2016 50 45.92 43.19
Q2-2016 50 46.96 42.52
Q3-2016 50 47.28 43.34
Q4-2016 50 49.00 45.49
Q1-2017 50 50.27 47.99
Q2-2017 50 50.09 49.83
Q3-2017 50 51.58 50.54
Q4-2017 50 52.81 50.55

Prices went up for both export and domestic markets for the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter. A weakening in the exchange rate of the Norwegian currency against key trading partners can help explain the rise in prices in the export market. Producers of intermediate goods and consumer goods saw an increase in prices in both markets. For producers of capital goods there was still a negative trend in prices in both markets. Two likely explanations for the decline are the requirement for oil companies to reduce development and maintenance costs, and the fierce competition for supplier contracts in the oil and gas industry.

Figure 3. Prices on products for manufacturing. Changes from previous quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted

Turning point value Prices on products at home markets Prices on products at export markets
Q1-2008 50 61.95 54.05
Q2-2008 50 60.85 54.97
Q3-2008 50 56.22 54.45
Q4-2008 50 50.09 50.29
Q1-2009 50 44.77 45.16
Q2-2009 50 44.35 43.94
Q3-2009 50 46.02 44.06
Q4-2009 50 46.22 43.85
Q1-2010 50 46.72 45.52
Q2-2010 50 49.06 49.27
Q3-2010 50 51.36 51.55
Q4-2010 50 53.53 52.68
Q1-2011 50 55.81 52.84
Q2-2011 50 54.83 49.99
Q3-2011 50 52.59 46.56
Q4-2011 50 51.99 44.97
Q1-2012 50 51.88 45.54
Q2-2012 50 51.44 46.22
Q3-2012 50 51.89 45.44
Q4-2012 50 51.77 44.40
Q1-2013 50 51.10 45.05
Q2-2013 50 52.19 47.22
Q3-2013 50 53.12 50.00
Q4-2013 50 53.61 52.98
Q1-2014 50 54.40 53.30
Q2-2014 50 54.20 51.62
Q3-2014 50 53.42 50.86
Q4-2014 50 53.10 51.67
Q1-2015 50 51.09 50.33
Q2-2015 50 48.74 49.03
Q3-2015 50 48.27 49.53
Q4-2015 50 48.67 48.92
Q1-2016 50 49.60 47.88
Q2-2016 50 50.31 47.95
Q3-2016 50 49.94 47.90
Q4-2016 50 49.61 47.71
Q1-2017 50 50.43 49.63
Q2-2017 50 51.64 51.26
Q3-2017 50 53.15 52.26
Q4-2017 50 54.28 53.38

Positive expectations for the first quarter of 2018

The general outlook for the first quarter of 2018 is clearly positive. The share of business leaders who feel optimistic about the coming quarter is greater than in the previous survey. Industry leaders report that investment plans are adjusted upwards and new orders from both the domestic market and export market are expected to increase. The total stock of orders is also expected to increase. Employment is expected to increase during the first quarter of 2018. Producers of capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods are all optimistic in their assessment of the first quarter of 2018.

Figure 4. General judgement of the outlook in next quarter for manufacturing

Turning point value Smoothed seasonally adjusted
Q1-2008 50 56.98
Q2-2008 50 52.38
Q3-2008 50 45.47
Q4-2008 50 40.34
Q1-2009 50 40.17
Q2-2009 50 43.98
Q3-2009 50 47.54
Q4-2009 50 50.26
Q1-2010 50 53.24
Q2-2010 50 56.05
Q3-2010 50 59.01
Q4-2010 50 61.00
Q1-2011 50 60.13
Q2-2011 50 57.55
Q3-2011 50 56.04
Q4-2011 50 56.04
Q1-2012 50 56.38
Q2-2012 50 56.20
Q3-2012 50 55.54
Q4-2012 50 55.12
Q1-2013 50 55.15
Q2-2013 50 55.01
Q3-2013 50 54.82
Q4-2013 50 54.69
Q1-2014 50 54.13
Q2-2014 50 53.37
Q3-2014 50 51.66
Q4-2014 50 48.50
Q1-2015 50 45.34
Q2-2015 50 43.46
Q3-2015 50 43.00
Q4-2015 50 44.18
Q1-2016 50 46.88
Q2-2016 50 50.42
Q3-2016 50 53.06
Q4-2016 50 53.96
Q1-2017 50 54.16
Q2-2017 50 54.56
Q3-2017 50 56.63
Q4-2017 50 59.81

The industrial confidence indicator for the fourth quarter of 2017 was 6.4 (seasonally adjusted net figures),up from 3.2 in the previous quarter. This is over the historical average of 3.0, and is the highest value since the second quarter of 2014. Values above zero indicate that total output will grow, while values below zero indicate that total output will fall. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.

Figure 5. Industrial confidence indicator¹

Seasonally adjusted Average 1990-2017
Q1-2008 6.9 3.0
Q2-2008 -0.7 3.0
Q3-2008 -6.9 3.0
Q4-2008 -22.9 3.0
Q1-2009 -19.3 3.0
Q2-2009 -7.9 3.0
Q3-2009 -2.9 3.0
Q4-2009 0.1 3.0
Q1-2010 3.2 3.0
Q2-2010 4.5 3.0
Q3-2010 8.8 3.0
Q4-2010 11.1 3.0
Q1-2011 9.1 3.0
Q2-2011 8.5 3.0
Q3-2011 5.6 3.0
Q4-2011 6.0 3.0
Q1-2012 9.0 3.0
Q2-2012 6.5 3.0
Q3-2012 0.7 3.0
Q4-2012 4.8 3.0
Q1-2013 1.3 3.0
Q2-2013 1.3 3.0
Q3-2013 6.2 3.0
Q4-2013 7.9 3.0
Q1-2014 6.4 3.0
Q2-2014 6.5 3.0
Q3-2014 1.6 3.0
Q4-2014 -1.8 3.0
Q1-2015 -3.9 3.0
Q2-2015 -8.6 3.0
Q3-2015 -6.7 3.0
Q4-2015 -8.3 3.0
Q1-2016 -7.0 3.0
Q2-2016 -2.1 3.0
Q3-2016 -4.0 3.0
Q4-2016 -0.6 3.0
Q1-2017 1.1 3.0
Q2-2017 3.6 3.0
Q3-2017 3.2 3.0
Q4-2017 6.4 3.0
¹ Industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers (balances) to the questions on production expectations, total stock of orders and inventories of own products (the latter with inverted sign).

Marginal decrease in capacity utilisation

The average capacity utilisationfor  for Norwegian manufacturing went slightly down and was calculated to 77.8 per cent at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with 77.9 in the third quarter of 2017. This is below the historical average of 80.2 per cent. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU).

Figure 6. Capacity utilisation in per cent for manufacturing

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Average 1990-2017
Q1-2008 83.7 80.21
Q2-2008 83.0 80.21
Q3-2008 81.4 80.21
Q4-2008 78.9 80.21
Q1-2009 76.8 80.21
Q2-2009 76.0 80.21
Q3-2009 76.3 80.21
Q4-2009 76.8 80.21
Q1-2010 77.1 80.21
Q2-2010 77.8 80.21
Q3-2010 78.5 80.21
Q4-2010 78.9 80.21
Q1-2011 79.4 80.21
Q2-2011 79.8 80.21
Q3-2011 79.6 80.21
Q4-2011 79.6 80.21
Q1-2012 79.7 80.21
Q2-2012 79.7 80.21
Q3-2012 79.8 80.21
Q4-2012 79.8 80.21
Q1-2013 79.4 80.21
Q2-2013 79.3 80.21
Q3-2013 79.5 80.21
Q4-2013 80.0 80.21
Q1-2014 80.4 80.21
Q2-2014 80.5 80.21
Q3-2014 80.1 80.21
Q4-2014 79.3 80.21
Q1-2015 78.4 80.21
Q2-2015 77.4 80.21
Q3-2015 76.7 80.21
Q4-2015 76.8 80.21
Q1-2016 77.1 80.21
Q2-2016 77.2 80.21
Q3-2016 77.0 80.21
Q4-2016 76.8 80.21
Q1-2017 77.1 80.21
Q2-2017 77.6 80.21
Q3-2017 77.9 80.21
Q4-2017 77.8 80.21

The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was 4.0 in the fourth quarter of 2017. This is slightly lower than the previous quarter when it was 4.1, but is above the historical average for the indicator of 3.9.

Figure 7. Number of working months covered by current stock of orders for manufacturing

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Average 1990-2017
Q1-2008 4.83 3.9
Q2-2008 4.78 3.9
Q3-2008 4.65 3.9
Q4-2008 4.46 3.9
Q1-2009 4.23 3.9
Q2-2009 3.97 3.9
Q3-2009 3.77 3.9
Q4-2009 3.74 3.9
Q1-2010 3.83 3.9
Q2-2010 3.95 3.9
Q3-2010 4.12 3.9
Q4-2010 4.25 3.9
Q1-2011 4.31 3.9
Q2-2011 4.37 3.9
Q3-2011 4.33 3.9
Q4-2011 4.13 3.9
Q1-2012 4.00 3.9
Q2-2012 4.09 3.9
Q3-2012 4.26 3.9
Q4-2012 4.32 3.9
Q1-2013 4.30 3.9
Q2-2013 4.22 3.9
Q3-2013 4.15 3.9
Q4-2013 4.25 3.9
Q1-2014 4.44 3.9
Q2-2014 4.50 3.9
Q3-2014 4.41 3.9
Q4-2014 4.35 3.9
Q1-2015 4.30 3.9
Q2-2015 4.24 3.9
Q3-2015 4.22 3.9
Q4-2015 4.18 3.9
Q1-2016 4.06 3.9
Q2-2016 3.97 3.9
Q3-2016 3.98 3.9
Q4-2016 4.02 3.9
Q1-2017 4.05 3.9
Q2-2017 4.09 3.9
Q3-2017 4.08 3.9
Q4-2017 4.02 3.9

The resource shortage indicator went slightly down compared with the previous quarter. There is still little shortage of labour, good access to raw materials and electrical power, and few industry leaders are reporting full capacity utilisation. At the same time, there are fewer business leaders who report that weak demand or strong competition are limiting factors for production.

Figur 8

Figure 8. Bottlenecks in production in current quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted

Timelines

 

The survey data was collected in the period from 7 December 2017 to 18 January 2018.

Assessment of Q4 2017 and the short-term outlook¹

1 An overall evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments.   2 Very good: ++, Good: +, Stable: ~, Poor: -, Very poor: --, Good, but with certain negative indications: +(-), A situation where the + and - factors even out: +/-, Poor, but with certain positive indications: -(+)
Industry Evaluation 2
Food, beverages and tobacco +
Wood and wood products ++
Paper and paper products +(-)
Basic chemicals +
Non-ferrous metals +
Fabricated metal products +
Computer and electrical equipment -(+)
Machinery and equipment +
Ships, boats and oil platforms -(+)
Repair, installation of machinery +

Contact