Manufacturing turnover fell sharply in April

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Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the total turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 10 per cent from March to April. Measures introduced in order to mitigate the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway and a drop in prices for refined petroleum where important factors behind the decline. In the period February-April 2020 the decline was 3.5 per cent compared with the previous three-month period.

Written by: Anne Karin Linderud Haugen

The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 156.3 (2005=100) in the period February-April 2020 compared to 160.9 in the previous three-month period  according to seasonally-adjusted figures.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 1. Index of turnover for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Index of turnover for manufacturing
Jan. 2010 137.1
Feb. 2010 136
Mar. 2010 135.1
Apr. 2010 135.5
May 2010 136.3
June 2010 137.5
July 2010 138.2
Aug. 2010 136.8
Sep. 2010 134.5
Okt. 2010 134.7
Nov. 2010 137.3
Dec. 2010 138.3
Jan. 2011 137.4
Feb. 2011 136.6
Mar. 2011 135.4
Apr. 2011 136.7
May 2011 136.4
June 2011 137.9
July 2011 136.7
Aug. 2011 136.2
Sep. 2011 136.1
Okt. 2011 137.1
Nov. 2011 139.1
Dec. 2011 141.6
Jan. 2012 143.4
Feb. 2012 144
Mar. 2012 143.8
Apr. 2012 142.7
May 2012 143.2
June 2012 142.8
July 2012 143.8
Aug. 2012 143.6
Sep. 2012 144.9
Okt. 2012 145
Nov. 2012 145.8
Dec. 2012 145.4
Jan. 2013 146.6
Feb. 2013 145.5
Mar. 2013 146.7
Apr. 2013 146
May 2013 146.2
June 2013 147.5
July 2013 150.9
Aug. 2013 153.6
Sep. 2013 153.9
Okt. 2013 152.1
Nov. 2013 151.7
Dec. 2013 151.2
Jan. 2014 150.2
Feb. 2014 151
Mar. 2014 150
Apr. 2014 151.7
May 2014 150.5
June 2014 149.7
July 2014 148.8
Aug. 2014 151.3
Sep. 2014 151.4
Okt. 2014 151.7
Nov. 2014 150.6
Dec. 2014 151.9
Jan. 2015 149.9
Feb. 2015 149.8
Mar. 2015 151
Apr. 2015 153.3
May 2015 152.4
June 2015 150.8
July 2015 149.3
Aug. 2015 148.8
Sep. 2015 147.9
Okt. 2015 147.6
Nov. 2015 144.7
Dec. 2015 143.2
Jan. 2016 141.1
Feb. 2016 139.9
Mar. 2016 139
Apr. 2016 138.4
May 2016 139.8
June 2016 139.6
July 2016 139.5
Aug. 2016 137.5
Sep. 2016 136.5
Okt. 2016 134.9
Nov. 2016 134.2
Dec. 2016 133.1
Jan. 2017 135.2
Feb. 2017 137.5
Mar. 2017 140.2
Apr. 2017 140.4
May 2017 138.8
June 2017 137.7
July 2017 137.9
Aug. 2017 139.9
Sep. 2017 140.8
Okt. 2017 141.5
Nov. 2017 142.3
Dec. 2017 144.7
Jan. 2018 145.1
Feb. 2018 145.4
Mar. 2018 145.1
Apr. 2018 146.4
May 2018 149.2
June 2018 151.9
July 2018 153.6
Aug. 2018 153.5
Sep. 2018 154.1
Okt. 2018 155.3
Nov. 2018 156.2
Dec. 2018 154.8
Jan. 2019 155.6
Feb. 2019 156.2
Mar. 2019 157.7
Apr. 2019 158.5
May 2019 158.9
June 2019 160.1
July 2019 159.4
Aug. 2019 159.9
Sep. 2019 160.6
Okt. 2019 161.9
Nov. 2019 162.5
Dec. 2019 162.6
Jan. 2020 161.9
Feb. 2020 160.6
Mar. 2020 160.9
Apr. 2020 156.3

Monthly change: ships, boats and oil platforms decreases manufacturing turnover

Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover decreased by 10 per cent from March to April 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Both the domestic market and the export marked contributed to the decline.

Building of ships and oil platforms contributed the most to the decrease in Norwegian manufacturing turnover, with a decrease by 36 per cent. The decrease is mainly caused by March being driven up by a few large deliveries.

The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed also to the negative development in total manufacturing turnover. Lower demand and decreased prices on refined petroleum products was a contributing factor.

Three-month change: reduced turnover in refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 3.5 per cent in the period February-April 2020 compared to the previous three-month period.

The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most in negative direction with its decline of 17 per cent in the period. Machinery and equipment and fabricated metal products also contributed to the decline in the period February-April 2020.

1 ¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Selected industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹

Food, beverages and tobacco Refined petro. chemicals, pharmac. Fabricated metal products Ships, boats and oil platforms Machinery and equipment
Jan. 2014 168.1 152.4 172.5 129.6 274.0
Feb. 2014 168.4 153.1 171.8 131.2 264.5
Mar. 2014 166.2 149.3 173.3 159.0 258.6
Apr. 2014 170.5 147.5 172.2 164.8 265.9
May 2014 171.7 144.5 169.3 154.6 262.1
June 2014 172.7 142.5 168.0 150.5 266.5
July 2014 170.8 140.3 171.5 143.8 274.8
Aug. 2014 171.9 136.7 172.3 151.7 307.0
Sep. 2014 173.1 134.3 172.8 151.0 308.3
Okt. 2014 173.3 132.1 170.0 161.5 305.9
Nov. 2014 174.2 135.1 168.9 157.7 289.6
Dec. 2014 175.9 133.6 171.5 155.5 295.8
Jan. 2015 177.9 127.9 160.0 138.8 304.0
Feb. 2015 177.6 123.3 157.7 141.8 306.8
Mar. 2015 177.1 127.6 156.5 139.5 318.3
Apr. 2015 178.0 131.0 164.6 154.7 307.6
May 2015 178.5 130.9 166.7 148.5 302.1
June 2015 179.1 132.1 162.8 143.6 278.9
July 2015 179.0 132.9 158.4 137.5 271.5
Aug. 2015 180.3 129.8 159.7 134.4 260.9
Sep. 2015 180.0 131.7 154.3 133.5 257.5
Okt. 2015 181.5 134.2 153.9 121.4 256.8
Nov. 2015 183.1 137.3 145.5 109.1 242.1
Dec. 2015 185.5 131.2 150.1 113.0 235.4
Jan. 2016 186.7 123.4 150.0 120.0 221.1
Feb. 2016 190.4 116.1 150.5 120.7 212.4
Mar. 2016 193.0 111.8 145.0 111.8 205.5
Apr. 2016 194.1 110.4 142.7 106.1 198.1
May 2016 192.7 113.5 140.3 114.2 190.0
June 2016 193.8 115.0 143.4 116.1 168.1
July 2016 194.0 115.1 153.5 113.9 165.9
Aug. 2016 193.7 113.7 158.4 102.9 161.6
Sep. 2016 193.6 106.1 159.7 101.4 172.0
Okt. 2016 194.9 101.3 148.2 100.4 162.5
Nov. 2016 196.2 96.3 144.7 104.0 148.4
Dec. 2016 196.0 99.9 140.6 99.6 130.9
Jan.2017 196.4 116.5 141.6 97.5 125.3
Feb. 2017 197.4 132.5 141.3 91.2 130.2
Mar. 2017 198.5 141.7 148.7 95.1 128.4
Apr. 2017 196.2 137.7 146.3 95.7 127.6
May 2017 190.1 132.6 143.6 92.0 121.6
June 2017 185.6 131.3 143.4 85.8 123.1
July 2017 187.4 128.7 143.0 93.7 114.1
Aug. 2017 192.0 131.6 139.7 102.9 117.7
Sep. 2017 195.2 133.4 137.1 104.1 118.5
Okt. 2017 194.9 136.4 145.0 95.3 125.9
Nov. 2017 195.5 138.8 143.6 92.4 127.3
Dec. 2017 198.3 146.0 142.9 94.9 139.4
Jan. 2018 195.5 150.6 138.9 95.2 139.5
Feb. 2018 194.8 150.6 146.0 96.7 140.7
Mar. 2018 192.2 146.5 143.1 95.5 137.4
Apr. 2018 197.6 143.6 148.4 99.0 141.0
May 2018 200.8 146.4 155.2 104.8 150.1
June 2018 201.5 150.9 159.8 111.6 151.1
July 2018 201.9 157.2 154.7 109.5 154.4
Aug. 2018 201.5 156.0 159.4 101.7 153.0
Sep. 2018 202.4 165.5 162.3 101.9 150.7
Okt. 2018 202.1 168.1 163.4 110.5 150.9
Nov. 2018 201.6 168.8 157.1 120.1 159.7
Dec. 2018 202.4 157.0 156.2 120.4 166.4
Jan. 2019 204.1 152.5 162.6 119.1 172.8
Feb. 2019 203.8 151.0 168.3 129.2 173.0
Mar. 2019 203.2 151.5 173.2 135.0 171.0
Apr. 2019 205.3 153.5 176.4 131.6 174.0
May 2019 206.7 154.4 176.2 115.6 171.3
June 2019 209.9 150.5 177.7 120.2 180.1
July 2019 206.5 147.3 179.6 126.4 181.0
Aug. 2019 207.5 144.8 179.7 137.3 181.4
Sep. 2019 205.4 148.3 179.0 147.0 183.5
Okt. 2019 207.2 146.8 185.2 148.1 185.2
Nov. 2019 207.4 149.7 193.7 147.0 188.6
Dec. 2019 208.3 150.5 198.7 144.4 188.2
Jan. 2020 209.1 150.4 193.0 144.9 190.8
Feb. 2020 211.2 147.4 185.5 142.5 183.6
Mar. 2020 214.4 138.2 183.9 145.7 177.5
Apr. 2020 210.9 125.1 174.6 138.8 166.3

Monthly change: sharp decrease in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in March 2020

Manufacturing turnover in the euro area decreased by 12 percent from February to March 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 2.9 percent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark and Sweden decreased by 0.4 and 0.7 respectively, according to Eurostat.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and the following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Response rate for April

The data collection for April has been conducted in the period from 30st of April to 4th of June 2020. The response rate for April 2020 is 93,7 per cent, while the corresponding rate for the same period last year was 98 per cent.

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

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