Growth in total investments in 2018 due to wind farm development

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The companies’ latest investment estimates for 2018 indicate an increase within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply. This is mainly due to an investment growth within electricity supply.

The investment survey conducted in August 2018 suggest that total investments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2018 will amount to NOK 224 billion. This is 5.7 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017, given in August last year. The increase is particularly due to a strong investment growth within electricity supply, which is related to development of several new wind farms. In addition, manufacturing investments are also contributing positively, while investments within the oil and gas industry are more or less unchanged.

Figure 1. Estimated investments collected in 3rd quarter same year

Extraction and pipeline transport Manufacturing, mining and quarrying Electricity supply, gas and steam
2008 133400 33244 14153
2009 148061 26481 13268
2010 145644 20540 15058
2011 157766 20907 19015
2012 190681 21244 20898
2013 221795 21202 20902
2014 237056 21646 22181
2015 203736 21254 24137
2016 168739 22988 27213
2017 155627 22310 34034
2018 156313 25997 41737

The companies’ newest estimates for 2019 are adjusted upwards by 7 per cent compared to the previous survey conducted in May 2018. Total investments are now expected to amount to almost NOK 226 billion; a significant increase of 16 per cent compared to corresponding figure for 2018, given in August last year. All of the industries have positive forecasts for 2019, but the total growth is mainly driven by higher estimates within the oil and gas industry. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investments had the following development from the first to the second quarter of 2018:

  • Oil and gas: 3.5 %
  • Manufacturing : 10.1 %
  • Electricity supply: 10.9 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Manufacturing Electricity supply, gas and steam Extraction and pipeline transport
Q2-2008 180 168.3 130.8
Q3-2008 180.8 162.1 142
Q4-2008 180.7 164.4 150.4
Q1-2009 153.9 155.7 164.9
Q2-2009 124.5 148.7 154.7
Q3-2009 111.6 149.1 148.4
Q4-2009 99.7 147.8 141
Q1-2010 102.1 145.2 137.6
Q2-2010 100.6 164.7 148.4
Q3-2010 89.8 187.1 133.2
Q4-2010 99.4 178.1 144.7
Q1-2011 98.3 197.5 156.3
Q2-2011 99.2 204.1 161.1
Q3-2011 107.9 188.4 176.9
Q4-2011 104.5 214.5 183.4
Q1-2012 111 218.5 188.5
Q2-2012 109.3 206.8 195.9
Q3-2012 98.4 235 194.1
Q4-2012 106.1 245.3 214.9
Q1-2013 100.7 223.1 225.4
Q2-2013 110.7 234 234.5
Q3-2013 108 245.4 253.5
Q4-2013 103.3 253.3 253.5
Q1-2014 112.3 258.4 253.6
Q2-2014 111.9 274.7 254.5
Q3-2014 112.2 247.4 249
Q4-2014 117.5 248.8 237.9
Q1-2015 99.8 262.6 242.8
Q2-2015 104.7 266.8 229.1
Q3-2015 117.3 268.6 216.3
Q4-2015 107.7 289.3 204.9
Q1-2016 127.8 306.9 192.1
Q2-2016 124.2 282.1 185.3
Q3-2016 125.6 320.8 178.7
Q4-2016 127.3 324.7 173.1
Q1-2017 122.2 363 169
Q2-2017 110.3 305.5 170.2
Q3-2017 112.9 431.1 152.1
Q4-2017 120.3 378 168.3
Q1-2018 122.2 412.3 153.9
Q2-2018 134.6 457.4 159.3

High investments in wind farm development

The companies’ latest investment estimates for 2018 suggest that total investments within electricity supply will amount to NOK 41.7 billion. This is 23 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017. The growth is particularly due to a high investment level within the production sector. High investments related to development of several new wind farm explains this development. In addition, the distribution sector is also seeing an investment increase compared to 2017. This increase is connected to installation of new power meters (AMS) and power grid upgrades.

The newest estimates for 2019 are adjusted upwards with 11 per cent compared to the previous survey conducted in May 2018. Total investments in electricity supply are now expected to amount to NOK 38.1 billion; 10 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2018, given in August last year. The production sector is expected to increase by 50 per cent due to further investments in wind farm development. The total investment increase in electricity supply is however dampened by lower investments in the distribution sector. This decline is linked to the completion of the installation of the new AMS- meters in 2018.

Figure 3. Investments. Electricity supply, gas and steam. Estimates given on different points in time

2016 2017 2018 2019
May t-1 27533 30402 34355 34409
Aug t-1 26328 30938 34567 38069
Nov t-1 26630 31616 37738
Feb t 28100 33977 41168
May t 27345 34780 40032
Aug t 27213 34034 41737
Nov t 27123 32688
Feb t+1 26222 31396

Increase in manufacturing in 2018, further growth in 2019

Latest investment estimates for manufacturing in 2018 indicate a strong growth of 13 per cent compared to the corresponding figure for 2017. The growth in 2018 is particularly due to a high investment level within the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products. Maintenance work and upgrade of production plants among several key producers explains this development. In addition, higher investments within food products and rubber, plastic and mineral products also contribute positively. The overall increase in 2018 is dampened by a lower investment level within basic metals. The decline is related to the fact that some major investment projects, which contributed to growth in 2017, are either completed or in a final phase.

Figure 4. Investments. Manufacturing, mining and quarrying. Estimates given on different points in time

2016 2017 2018 2019
May t-1 18828 17014 17914 20759
Aug t-1 20002 16187 18006 22554
Nov t-1 21762 18574 21618
Feb t 22388 21618 24776
May t 23204 22616 25111
Aug t 22988 22310 25997
Nov t 22518 21687
Feb t+1 23789 21982

1 The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing.

Figure 5. Contribution by industry for rate of change in manufacturing 2018/2017¹. Estimates collected in Q3 same year

Contribution by ind. Percentage change
Furniture and manufacturing n.e.c. 0.1
Repair, installation of machinery 1.2
Transport equipment n.e.c 0.5
Ships, boats and oil platforms -0.8
Machinery and equipment 1.9
Computer and electrical equipment -0.3
Fabricated metal products 0.9
Basic metals -5.0
Rubber, plastic and mineral prod. 4.0
Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac. 7.1
Printing, reproduction -0.4
Paper and paper products 1.0
Wood and wood products 0.7
Textiles, wearing apparel, leather 0.1
Food, beverages and tobacco 2.5
Manufacturing 13.4

The companies’ newest forecasts for 2019 indicate a significant investment increase of 24 per cent compared with the corresponding figure for 2018. The growth is mainly due to high investments in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products and in food products. The investment level within these two industries is expected to rise with 41 and 33 per cent respectively. In addition, some major projects within paper and paper products, and repair and installation of machinery also contribute positively to the overall increase in manufacturing.

1 The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing

Figure 6. Contribution by industry for rate of change in manufacturing 2019/2018¹. Estimates collected in Q3 the previous year

Contribution by ind. Percentage change
Furniture and manufacturing n.e.c. 0.0
Repair, installation of machinery 4.3
Transport equipment n.e.c 0.7
Ships, boats and oil platforms -0.6
Machinery and equipment 1.4
Computer and electrical equipment -0.9
Fabricated metal products 1.5
Basic metals -1.9
Rubber, plastic and mineral prod. -0.1
Refined petro., chemicals, pharmac. 10.6
Printing, reproduction 0.1
Paper and paper products 3.2
Wood and wood products -1.8
Textiles, wearing apparel, leather 0.7
Food, beverages and tobacco 7.1
Manufacturing 24.3

Strong growth in mining and quarrying in 2018

Measured in current value, the estimates for investments in mining and quarrying in 2018 are expected to amount to almost NOK 1.4 billion. This represents a strong growth of 132 per cent compared to the year before. Preliminary estimates also suggest an increase in 2019 compared to the corresponding figure for 2018.