Decline in total investments for 2020

Published:

Final investments for 2020 covering oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply show a decreased by 1.4 per cent compared with 2019. The decline can be linked to lower investments in manufacturing. The latest estimates for 2021 suggest an overall decline of about 8 percent.

Written by: Edvard Andreassen

Final investments for 2020 within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply amounted to NOK 246.2 billion, measured in current value. These result in a decrease in investment of 1.4 per cent compared with the investments made in 2019. The decline can be linked in particular to a clear decline in manufacturing investment. Power supply also a slightly declined, while investments in the oil and gas industry grew by 1 per cent.

Figure 1. Final investments

Extraction and pipeline transport Manufacturing, mining and quarrying Electricity supply, gas and steam
2010 131839 19723 14612
2011 153241 20061 16873
2012 179321 20892 19178
2013 218659 21160 20422
2014 224402 22360 21677
2015 201191 20603 23114
2016 164492 23789 26222
2017 148809 21982 31396
2018 151831 25590 39981
2019 177542 33156 38963
2020 179308 28338 38576

The companies' latest estimates for total investments in 2021 now suggest a further decline, and compared with the corresponding estimate for 2020, is expected a decline of about 8 percent. The negative forecast in 2021 is driven in particular by a sharp decline in oil and gas activities, but also power supply and manufacturing contribute in a negative direction. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investments had following development from the 3rd to the 4th quarter of 2020:

  • Oil and gas: 4.1 %
  • Manufacturing : -1.1 %
  • Electricity supply: -9.9 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Manufacturing Electricity supply, gas and steam Extraction and pipeline transport
Q4-2010 99.4 178.1 144.7
Q1-2011 98.3 197.5 156.3
Q2-2011 99.2 204.1 161.1
Q3-2011 107.9 188.4 176.9
Q4-2011 104.5 214.5 183.4
Q1-2012 111 218.5 188.5
Q2-2012 109.3 206.8 195.9
Q3-2012 98.4 235 194.1
Q4-2012 106.1 245.3 214.9
Q1-2013 100.6 223.2 224.4
Q2-2013 110.7 234.7 235.9
Q3-2013 108 245 253.3
Q4-2013 103.5 253 253.1
Q1-2014 111.7 258.7 255.4
Q2-2014 112.3 275.8 253.3
Q3-2014 112.1 246.2 249.1
Q4-2014 117.8 248.5 237.1
Q1-2015 100.2 263.3 242.8
Q2-2015 103.9 269.4 230
Q3-2015 116.9 265.5 216.6
Q4-2015 108.4 288.6 203.5
Q1-2016 127.5 309.3 192
Q2-2016 123.8 287.1 186.9
Q3-2016 124.4 313.2 179.1
Q4-2016 129 323.5 171
Q1-2017 121.1 369.7 171
Q2-2017 110.3 313.4 170.4
Q3-2017 110.7 415.1 152.5
Q4-2017 123.1 376.1 165.3
Q1-2018 121.3 424.1 154.3
Q2-2018 133.7 473.4 161.8
Q3-2018 134 489.2 170.7
Q4-2018 137.7 479.5 183.2
Q1-2019 158.7 431.3 183.7
Q2-2019 164.2 444.2 192.4
Q3-2019 184.6 476.1 199.9
Q4-2019 171.2 474.9 208.9
Q1-2020 160.4 433.7 213.3
Q2-2020 138.3 511.2 195
Q3-2020 141.7 463.5 189.8
Q4-2020 140.1 417.5 197.6

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier.

This means that the usual trend will not be calculated and instead will be trend and seasonally adjusted follow each other. An important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is not included. The trend figure from the 1st quarter of 2020 and later, is therefore difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.