Decline in manufacturing output in April

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Norwegian manufacturing output saw a decline of 1.6 per cent from March to April 2020, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The activity was affected by the measures introduced in order to mitigate the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. In the period February-April 2020 there was an output decline of 2.7 per cent compared with the last three-month period.

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the period February-April 2020 amounted to 116.1 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous three-month period was 119.3. Figure 1 shows that the development in seasonally adjusted figures has been relatively stable the last year, before the output drops significantly from March.

Since March and April 2020 are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine, the latest trend figures are not representative for the actual development. Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in figure 1. For more details, see the information box regarding the Covid-19 virus by the end of the article.

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.6
March 2015 121.8 126.8
April 2015 120.9 121.4
May 2015 120.2 119.0
June 2015 119.5 120.1
July 2015 118.9 115.2
Aug. 2015 118.2 118.1
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.8
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.8
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.5
March 2016 114.8 117.9
April 2016 114.5 114.3
May 2016 114.1 114.8
June 2016 113.6 112.6
July 2016 113.1 113.8
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.3
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.2
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.7
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.3
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.2
March 2017 114.2 114.1
April 2017 114.4 114.2
May 2017 114.4 114.3
June 2017 114.3 114.3
July 2017 114.3 114.7
Aug. 2017 114.4 110.6
Sep. 2017 114.4 114.1
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.2
Nov. 2017 114.6 114.8
Dec. 2017 114.7 115.9
Jan. 2018 114.8 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.8 114.6
March 2018 114.8 115.0
April 2018 114.9 115.3
May 2018 115.1 114.7
June 2018 115.5 115.4
July 2018 115.8 115.9
Aug. 2018 116.3 116.6
Sep. 2018 116.8 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.7
Nov. 2018 117.8 118.0
Dec. 2018 118.2 118.6
Jan. 2019 118.5 118.4
Feb. 2019 118.9 118.3
March 2019 119.2 116.9
April 2019 119.5 119.9
May 2019 119.7 120.3
June 2019 119.7 119.1
July 2019 119.7 120.2
Aug. 2019 119.6 118.9
Sep. 2019 119.5 119.7
Oct. 2019 119.4 119.6
Nov. 2019 119.3 119.1
Dec. 2019 119.3 119.2
Jan. 2020 119.7
Feb. 2020 119.1
March 2020 115.5
April 2020 113.6

Monthly change: large differences within the manufacturing sector in April

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a decline of 1.6 per cent from March to April 2020. This decline follows after a decline of 3 per cent from February to March. The decline was particularly related to low activity within labour intensive sectors, including petroleum-related manufacturing. Strict infection control rules and quarantine of employees were key factors behind the reduced production level. Building of ship, boats and oil platforms as well as the industry grouping furniture and manufacturing n.e.c. saw the largest output decrease with decline of 15 and 29 per cent respectively.

On the other hand, basic chemicals and the industry grouping computer and electrical equipment contributed to dampen the overall production decline in April with an increase of 9.4 and 6.1 per cent respectively.

Figure 2. Selected industries in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted, monthly change. April 2020/ March2020

3-month percentage change
Furniture and manufacturing n.e.c. -29.1
Ships, boats and oil platforms -14.6
Fabricated metal products -4.0
Basic chemicals 9.4

Three-month change: clear decline in manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a clear decline of 2.7 per cent in the period February-April 2020, compared with the previous three-month period. This decline is particularly related to a low production level in March and April. Ships, boats and oil platforms contributed the most to this decline, while food products pulled the overall development in the opposite direction, with a solid production increase in this period.

Monthly change: Large drop in output in the Euro area in March 2020

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area fell by as much as 12 per cent from February to March 2020. This strong output decline was caused by the actions taken to mitigate the spread of the Covid-19 virus. Production of durable consumer goods, such as cars, saw the strongest output decline, followed by investment goods. The country with the strongest decrease in manufacturing output was Italy, with a decline of over 30 per cent.

In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing saw an output decline of 3 per cent. Sweden saw a marginal decline of 0.2 per cent, and Denmark experienced a decline of 0.4 per cent.

For more information on the development in European manufacturing sector in March, see this article from Eurostat.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2015 97.6 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
March 2015 100.5 106.3
April 2015 99.9 101.7
May 2015 100.2 99.7
June 2015 100.7 100.6
July 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 99.6 99.0
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 100.0 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.1 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.9 96.6
Jan. 2016 104.0 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.5 96.7
March 2016 100.3 98.8
April 2016 101.7 95.8
May 2016 100.3 96.2
June 2016 101.6 94.3
July 2016 101.3 95.4
Aug. 2016 101.5 92.1
Sep. 2016 101.5 94.1
Oct. 2016 102.8 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.2 94.0
Dec. 2016 102.8 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.1 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.7
March 2017 103.2 95.5
April 2017 104.0 95.7
May 2017 104.3 95.7
June 2017 103.8 95.8
July 2017 105.6 96.1
Aug. 2017 106.1 92.6
Sep. 2017 105.9 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.7 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.6 96.2
Dec. 2017 108.9 97.1
Jan. 2018 107.5 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.3 96.0
March 2018 105.3 96.3
April 2018 105.9 96.6
May 2018 107.1 96.1
June 2018 107.0 96.7
July 2018 105.7 97.1
Aug. 2018 106.8 97.7
Sep. 2018 106.3 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.5 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.4 98.8
Dec. 2018 105.3 99.3
Jan. 2019 105.9 99.1
Feb. 2019 106.1 99.1
March 2019 105.7 98.0
April 2019 105.1 100.5
May 2019 105.6 100.7
June 2019 104.4 99.7
July 2019 104.4 100.7
Aug. 2019 104.4 99.6
Sep. 2019 104.8 100.2
Oct. 2019 104.5 100.2
Nov. 2019 103.8 99.8
Dec. 2019 102.2 99.8
Jan. 2020 104.3 100.2
Feb. 2020 104.3 99.8
March 2020 91.5 96.7

Three-month change: increase in extraction of crude petroleum and electricity supply

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw an increase of 2 per cent in the period February-April 2020 compared with the previous three-month period.

Extraction of crude petroleum had a clear growth of 8.4 cent, while extraction of natural gas increased by 1.2 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this three-month period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output decline equivalent to 4.7 per cent in the period. The decrease was related to strict infection control rules, as well as the low oil price. Mining and quarrying saw an increase of 4.9 per cent, while Norwegian electricity supply increased by as much as 18 per cent. The production within electricity supply was especially high in March and April, which can partly be explained by increased production of hydro power to make room in the reservoirs for melting snow in the coming months.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
March 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
April 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
March 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
April 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
March 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
April 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
March 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
April 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
March 2014 121.9 85.2 72.3
April 2014 121.9 85.4 72.3
May 2014 122.2 84.2 70.2
June 2014 123.0 83.9 69.4
July 2014 123.6 83.6 68.8
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.7 70.2
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.7 71.8
Oct. 2014 125.4 87.2 73.6
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.7 74.4
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.4 73.7
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.1 72.4
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.7
March 2015 123.9 86.3 72.9
April 2015 123.6 85.4 71.7
May 2015 122.4 84.9 71.3
June 2015 120.2 85.0 72.0
July 2015 118.1 86.2 74.2
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.0 75.4
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.9 76.7
Oct. 2015 117.6 88.1 77.1
Nov. 2015 117.1 87.3 76.2
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.4 74.1
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.2 73.7
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.3 73.9
March 2016 116.2 85.7 73.7
April 2016 115.9 86.1 74.2
May 2016 115.7 86.4 74.7
June 2016 113.9 85.3 73.8
July 2016 113.7 84.9 73.5
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.2 71.8
Sep. 2016 112.0 81.9 70.1
Oct. 2016 111.4 82.4 71.0
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.9 73.0
Dec. 2016 112.3 85.8 75.4
Jan. 2017 113.1 85.7 74.3
Feb. 2017 113.7 85.9 73.6
March 2017 114.2 87.0 74.2
April 2017 114.2 87.2 74.5
May 2017 114.2 87.2 74.3
June 2017 114.3 87.1 73.8
July 2017 114.4 86.9 73.4
Aug. 2017 113.2 87.0 73.9
Sep. 2017 113.1 87.5 74.8
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.9 74.0
Nov. 2017 114.4 86.1 72.4
Dec. 2017 115.0 84.9 70.4
Jan. 2018 114.9 85.9 70.8
Feb. 2018 114.8 86.9 71.1
March 2018 114.5 87.8 71.2
April 2018 115.0 87.3 70.4
May 2018 115.0 86.4 69.5
June 2018 115.1 86.9 70.9
July 2018 115.3 87.3 71.5
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.6 73.2
Sep. 2018 116.2 88.3 72.4
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.8 72.2
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.9 70.5
Dec. 2018 118.1 87.3 69.1
Jan. 2019 118.3 85.9 68.2
Feb. 2019 118.4 84.7 67.5
March 2019 117.9 83.3 66.8
April 2019 118.4 82.7 65.9
May 2019 119.0 82.7 65.5
June 2019 119.8 82.4 64.6
July 2019 119.9 82.2 64.0
Aug. 2019 119.4 81.5 62.9
Sep. 2019 119.6 81.5 62.5
Oct. 2019 119.4 82.0 63.5
Nov. 2019 119.5 83.7 66.1
Dec. 2019 119.3 85.6 69.5
Jan. 2020 119.3 86.0 70.9
Feb. 2020 119.3 86.4 71.9
March 2020 118.1 86.8 72.7
April 2020 116.1 87.7 73.7

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and in stead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Response rate for April 2020

The data collection for April has been conducted in the period from 30th of April to 3rd of June 2020. The response rate for April 2020 is 93.2 per cent, while the corresponding rate for the same period last year was 98 per cent.

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

 

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