The Discussion Papers series presents results from ongoing research projects and other research and analysis by SSB staff, intended for international journals or books. The views and conclusions in this document are those of the author(s). 

First, we compute a probabilistic forecast of the population of Norway by age and sex, but irrespective of migration background. The future development of the population is simulated 3 000 times by stochastically varying parameters for mortality, fertility and international migration to 2060. We add migrant group detail using stochastically varying random shares to split up each result from the previous step into six sub-groups with immigration background, and one for the non-immigrants. The probabilistic forecast is calibrated against the Medium Variant of Statistics Norway’s official population projection.