Reports 2015/41

Labour Market Projections for Teachers

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LÆRERMOD projects supply and demand for five different types of teachers under stylized assumptions.

Projected teacher types are: Kindergarten teachers, primary- and lower secondary school teachers, subject teachers, and teachers with practical pedagogical education (PPU) within general education (PPU-A) and vocational education (PPU-Y).

With calculations based on LÆRERMOD we can analyze whether we educate enough teachers in relation to developments in the number of future users of educational services. In the calculations, we take into account that some of those trained as teachers do not work in the education sector.

Updated data explains differences in projections compared to the previous report. In this report, relevant statistics from 2013, not 2010, form the basis for the calculations. Furthermore, we now use population projections from 2014 rather than population projections from 2011.

In short, the key variables in LÆRERMOD are the uptake of new students in the base year (supply side) and the trend in the number of future users of educational services (demand side).

It is only among primary- and lower secondary school teachers that the model produces a deficit. An estimated gap between future supply and demand follows from the assumption that the base-year ratio between the number of teachers and the number of users remains constant over time. This means that equilibrium mechanisms to such deficits, like wage adjustments or variation in the number of applicants to teacher educations, are not modeled.

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