Teacher Projections 2016-2040

The model LÆRERMOD projects separately supply and demand for five different types of teachers under stylized assumptions. Teacher educations that are included in the model are kindergarten teachers, primary and lower secondary school teachers, subject teachers and other teachers, teachers with practical pedagogical education (PPU), and teacher with practical pedagogical education with vocational education (PPU-Y). With LÆRERMOD, we can analyze whether the economy produces enough teacher candidates with respect to the developments in the number of future users of educational services, i.e. the number of children. In the calculations, we consider that some of those trained as teachers choose not to work in the education sector. Updated data explain differences in projections compared to the previous report. In this report, relevant statistics from 2017 form the basis for the calculations. Furthermore, we now use population projections from 2018. In short, the key variables in LÆRERMOD are the uptake of new teacher students in the base year (supply side) and the trend in the number of future users of educational services, i.e., the growth in the number of children (demand side). It is only among primary and lower secondary school teachers that the model predicts a deficit.