Multinomial logit estimation of transition probabilities for workers in government sector, municipal sector, private sector with and without contractual pensions (AFP) and self-employed

To analyze the population's total work-up of rights and future payments for occupational pensions in public sectors, the current regulations for these schemes are incorporated into the microsimulation model MOSART. But in order to be able to deliver good analyzes in this field, knowledge about how employees accumulate seniority in the state and municipal sector, and thus how the labor moves in and out of these sectors, is also required. In the model, individuals are working either as self-employed, employed in a private enterprise without AFP, privately with AFP, or governmental or municipal activities. By incorporating estimated transition probabilities for sector change in the model, simulations provide estimates of the seniority's seniority and thus earned pension rights. This note documents how such transition probabilities in MOSART are estimated.

Author: Bjart Holtsmak